Tuesday, January 23, 2018

2018 Oscar Nominations and Predictions

The 2018 Oscar nominations were just announced this morning, and as usual, I have some thoughts. (THE SHAPE WATER got 13 nominations?!) I'll go over the major categories and list what I expect will win (what the Academy will pick), should win (what I would pick), WTF is it doing here (how did this get nominated), and snubs (why didn't this get nominated).

Best Picture

will win:  It's pretty difficult to predict what will win here. Most of these have a solid chance, except for DARKEST HOUR. I'll go with DUNKIRK, which I think has the best chance due to its universal appeal and also having Nolan nominated for Best Director.

should winLADY BIRD, which was my #3 movie of 2017.

WTF is it doing hereDARKEST HOUR, which doesn't really have anything going for it except for Gary Oldman's performance.

snubbedBLADE RUNNER 2049 and mother! The former was a box office flop and the latter was a polarizing movie to say the least, even for critics. But they were #1 and #2 on my list, respectively.

Best Director

  • Christopher Nolan (DUNKIRK)
  • Jordan Peele (GET OUT)
  • Greta Gerwig (LADY BIRD)
  • Paul Thomas Anderson (PHANTOM THREAD)
  • Guillermo del Toro (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
will win:  Guillermo del Toro won the Golden Globe so he's probably the front runner, but I'm going with Christopher Nolan.

should winJordan Peele

WTF is he doing herePaul Thomas Anderson, but only because I have not seen PHANTOM THREAD yet. I'm pretty sure he deserves to be nominated.

snubbedDenis Villeneuve for BLADE RUNNER 2049. He made a sequel to a 35 year old film that improved on the original while staying true to its themes and visuals. I don't think even Ridley Scott could have accomplished that.

Best Actress

  • Sally Hawkins (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
  • Margot Robbie (I, TONYA)
  • Saoirse Ronan (LADY BIRD)
  • Meryl Streep (THE POST)
will win:  Toss up between Frances McDormand and Saoirse Ronan, although I think the critical backlash against THREE BILLBOARDS may help Ronan's chances here.

should winSaoirse Ronan

WTF is she doing hereMeryl Streep, who I'm tired of seeing nominated every single year. Yeah she's great, but she gets nominated for every damn film she's in, whether they're good or not.

snubbedJennifer Lawrence for mother!, who is actually nominated for a Razzie instead. That's ridiculous.

Best Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis (PHANTOM THREAD)
  • Daniel Kaluuya (GET OUT)
  • Gary Oldman (DARKEST HOUR)
  • Denzel Washington (ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.)
will winGary Oldman, for the standard Oscar-bait role.

should winTimothée Chalamet. I'm not the biggest fan of his movie, but he definitely stood out with his performance.

WTF is he doing hereDenzel Washington. No one saw his movie. Number of those that actually did were offended by his performance of a character on the spectrum.

snubbedJames Franco (THE DISASTER ARTIST), who was probably hurt by the recent allegations of sexual misconduct.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige (MUDBOUND)
  • Allison Janney (I, TONYA)
  • Lesley Manville (PHANTOM THREAD)
  • Laurie Metcalf (LADY BIRD)
  • Octavia Spencer (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
will win:  Not really sure, but Allison Janney did win the Golden Globe.

should winLaurie Metcalf. I've only seen two films listed here, and she's definitely better than Octavia Spencer.

WTF is she doing here:  Speaking of which, Octavia Spencer. This one is truly a WTF because I thought her character was borderline offensive as a typical black friend to the main protagonist.

snubbedHolly Hunter (THE BIG SICK)

Best Cinematography

  • Roger Deakins (BLADE RUNNER 2049)
  • Bruno Delbonnel (DARKEST HOUR)
  • Hoyte van Hoytema (DUNKIRK)
  • Rachel Morrison (MUDBOUND)
  • Dan Laustsen (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
will winHoyte van Hoytema

should winRoger Deakins. The Academy loves to nominate him but has never actually given him an Oscar. He did phenomenal work on BLADE RUNNER 2049.

WTF is he doing here:  Sorry Bruno Delbonnel, I haven't seen your film.

snubbedSayombhu Mukdeeprom (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • James Ivory (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
  • Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber (THE DISASTER ARTIST)
  • Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green (LOGAN)
  • Aaron Sorkin (MOLLY'S GAME)
  • Virgil Williams and Dee Rees (MUDBOUND)
will win:  Aaron Sorkin is the big name here.

should win:  No clue.

WTF is it doing here:  Look, I saw LOGAN. I liked LOGAN. It doesn't deserve an Oscar for anything.

snubbed:  Can't think of anything.

Best Original Screenplay

  • Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani (THE BIG SICK)
  • Jordan Peele (GET OUT)
  • Greta Gerwig (LADY BIRD)
  • Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
will win:  I can't decide between Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, and Martin McDonagh. Typically, the Academy likes to award this to the movie that gets nominated for other categories but doesn't win them. Movies like MANCHESTER BY THE SEA, DJANGO UNCHAINED, HER, you get the picture. So it will depend on how these nominees do in the other categories that night, but my guts say Jordan Peele will get the Oscar here, while losing the other ones like Best Picture and Best Director.

should winJordan Peele. I need to watch GET OUT again, but I remember being super impressed with the writing -- all the subtle clues and callbacks that payoff later in the film.

WTF is it doing here:  Surprisingly none.

snubbedmother! Don't @ me.

Best Animated Feature Film

  • COCO
will winCOCO. Pixar is always the safe bet.

should winCOCO

WTF is it doing hereTHE BOSS BABY

snubbedA SILENT VOICE, the anime film about a deaf student and the bully that torments her. It didn't quite make my top 20, but it was close.

Best Original Song

  • "Mighty River" (MUDBOUND)
  • "Mystery of Love" (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
  • "Remember Me" (COCO)
  • "Stand Up For Something" (MARSHALL)
will win:  The Academy usually goes for the safe, audience-friendly pick. That would be "Remember Me."

should win"Mystery of Love" so that Sufjan Stevens can be called an Oscar winner. The song is pretty great too.

WTF is it doing here"Stand Up For Something." Sorry, I don't remember what MARSHALL is.

snubbed"Visions of Gideon" from CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, which I prefer over "Mystery of Love" and I think is used very effectively at the end of the film.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Featured Post

Top 20 Movies of 2018

Unoriginal opening sentence wherein I express the belief that 2018 was a pretty good year for cinema, but not as great as 2017. Standard-iss...