2018 Oscar Nominations and Predictions
The 2018 Oscar nominations were just announced this morning, and as usual, I have some thoughts. (THE SHAPE WATER got 13 nominations?!) I'll go over the major categories and list what I expect will win (what the Academy will pick), should win (what I would pick), WTF is it doing here (how did this get nominated), and snubs (why didn't this get nominated).
- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
- DARKEST HOUR
- GET OUT
- LADY BIRD
- PHANTOM THREAD
- THE POST
- THE SHAPE OF WATER
- THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
should win: LADY BIRD, which was my #3 movie of 2017.
WTF is it doing here: DARKEST HOUR, which doesn't really have anything going for it except for Gary Oldman's performance.
snubbed: BLADE RUNNER 2049 and mother! The former was a box office flop and the latter was a polarizing movie to say the least, even for critics. But they were #1 and #2 on my list, respectively.
- Christopher Nolan (DUNKIRK)
- Jordan Peele (GET OUT)
- Greta Gerwig (LADY BIRD)
- Paul Thomas Anderson (PHANTOM THREAD)
- Guillermo del Toro (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
should win: Jordan Peele
WTF is he doing here: Paul Thomas Anderson, but only because I have not seen PHANTOM THREAD yet. I'm pretty sure he deserves to be nominated.
snubbed: Denis Villeneuve for BLADE RUNNER 2049. He made a sequel to a 35 year old film that improved on the original while staying true to its themes and visuals. I don't think even Ridley Scott could have accomplished that.
- Sally Hawkins (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
- Frances McDormand (THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI)
- Margot Robbie (I, TONYA)
- Saoirse Ronan (LADY BIRD)
- Meryl Streep (THE POST)
should win: Saoirse Ronan
WTF is she doing here: Meryl Streep, who I'm tired of seeing nominated every single year. Yeah she's great, but she gets nominated for every damn film she's in, whether they're good or not.
snubbed: Jennifer Lawrence for mother!, who is actually nominated for a Razzie instead. That's ridiculous.
- Timothée Chalamet (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
- Daniel Day-Lewis (PHANTOM THREAD)
- Daniel Kaluuya (GET OUT)
- Gary Oldman (DARKEST HOUR)
- Denzel Washington (ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.)
should win: Timothée Chalamet. I'm not the biggest fan of his movie, but he definitely stood out with his performance.
WTF is he doing here: Denzel Washington. No one saw his movie. Number of those that actually did were offended by his performance of a character on the spectrum.
snubbed: James Franco (THE DISASTER ARTIST), who was probably hurt by the recent allegations of sexual misconduct.
Best Supporting Actress
- Mary J. Blige (MUDBOUND)
- Allison Janney (I, TONYA)
- Lesley Manville (PHANTOM THREAD)
- Laurie Metcalf (LADY BIRD)
- Octavia Spencer (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
should win: Laurie Metcalf. I've only seen two films listed here, and she's definitely better than Octavia Spencer.
WTF is she doing here: Speaking of which, Octavia Spencer. This one is truly a WTF because I thought her character was borderline offensive as a typical black friend to the main protagonist.
snubbed: Holly Hunter (THE BIG SICK)
- Roger Deakins (BLADE RUNNER 2049)
- Bruno Delbonnel (DARKEST HOUR)
- Hoyte van Hoytema (DUNKIRK)
- Rachel Morrison (MUDBOUND)
- Dan Laustsen (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
should win: Roger Deakins. The Academy loves to nominate him but has never actually given him an Oscar. He did phenomenal work on BLADE RUNNER 2049.
WTF is he doing here: Sorry Bruno Delbonnel, I haven't seen your film.
snubbed: Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
Best Adapted Screenplay
- James Ivory (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber (THE DISASTER ARTIST)
- Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green (LOGAN)
- Aaron Sorkin (MOLLY'S GAME)
- Virgil Williams and Dee Rees (MUDBOUND)
should win: No clue.
WTF is it doing here: Look, I saw LOGAN. I liked LOGAN. It doesn't deserve an Oscar for anything.
snubbed: Can't think of anything.
Best Original Screenplay
- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani (THE BIG SICK)
- Jordan Peele (GET OUT)
- Greta Gerwig (LADY BIRD)
- Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor (THE SHAPE OF WATER)
- Martin McDonagh (THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI)
should win: Jordan Peele. I need to watch GET OUT again, but I remember being super impressed with the writing -- all the subtle clues and callbacks that payoff later in the film.
WTF is it doing here: Surprisingly none.
snubbed: mother! Don't @ me.
Best Animated Feature Film
- THE BOSS BABY
- THE BREADWINNER
- LOVING VINCENT
should win: COCO
WTF is it doing here: THE BOSS BABY
snubbed: A SILENT VOICE, the anime film about a deaf student and the bully that torments her. It didn't quite make my top 20, but it was close.
Best Original Song
- "Mighty River" (MUDBOUND)
- "Mystery of Love" (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
- "Remember Me" (COCO)
- "Stand Up For Something" (MARSHALL)
- "This Is Me" (THE GREATEST SHOWMAN)
should win: "Mystery of Love" so that Sufjan Stevens can be called an Oscar winner. The song is pretty great too.
WTF is it doing here: "Stand Up For Something." Sorry, I don't remember what MARSHALL is.
snubbed: "Visions of Gideon" from CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, which I prefer over "Mystery of Love" and I think is used very effectively at the end of the film.